Nuclear disarmament crisis: mistrust with some glimmers of hope

To better understand why the multilateral system for nuclear disarmament is facing a profound crisis, UN News interviewed expert Gaukhar Mukhatzhanova*, who explains that the global arms control architecture, built over decades, is on the verge of collapse.

“The current situation is very difficult (…) We are witnessing the disintegration of the arms control architecture that was built primarily through negotiations between the Soviet Union, and later Russia, and the United States,” he stated.

Threats to the Non-Proliferation Treaty

The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) remains the only legally binding multilateral commitment that seeks to prevent new states from acquiring nuclear weapons and to disarm those that already possess them. Opened for signature in 1968 and in force since 1970, the treaty was extended indefinitely in 1995 and currently has 191 States Parties, including the five nuclear-weapon states. 

Its provisions provide for the holding of periodic review conferences every five years.

The return of great power rivalry

“We have returned to a period of deep mistrust between the main players, possibly worse than during the Cold War“,” said Mukhatzhanova, who identified the “return of great power competition” as a key factor in the erosion of arms control.

According to Mukhatzhanova, at the time of the NPT negotiations, both the United States and the USSR recognized the need to cooperate to prevent nuclear proliferation. 

Today, that understanding is lacking, which complicates negotiations. “If the main actors cannot negotiate directly and disagree on fundamental issues related to arms control and non-proliferation, There is a risk that consensus will fail again at the next review conference.".

The challenge is to identify possible areas of agreement and negotiate something that, without going into too much detail, reaffirms the commitment to the treaty's foundations and objectives: the prevention of the use of nuclear weapons, the prevention of the proliferation of nuclear weapons, and some eventual path and movement towards an agreement,” he added.

The alarm over nuclear tests 

Regarding the possible resumption of nuclear tests by the United States, Mukhatzhanova stated that the impact will depend on the specific details. Even if these are only subcritical (hydro-nuclear) or flight tests, this would create tension within the framework of the NPT and the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT).

“The United States had previously stated that hydronuclear tests are contrary to the CTBT, and now it says it will conduct them because Russia and China are doing so. Does this change the interpretation of the CTBT? Does it mean they will withdraw their signature? This raises questions that I think most of us would prefer not to have on the agenda,” Mukhatzhanova noted.

If these large-scale tests were to resume, he warned, “we would be talking about a truly drastic and very negative change, one that would open the door for others to resume nuclear testing.” He also noted that Russia had indicated it would conduct tests in response to other trials.

AI and the arms race 

Mukhatzhanova emphasized that emerging technologies, hypersonic systems, autonomous platforms, and artificial intelligence could significantly alter strategic stability.

"Hypersonic missiles combine speed and maneuverability “They can better evade missile defense and detection,” he explained.

The development of these systems encourages other states to improve their own capabilities, creating a "new stage in the nuclear arms race".

The concern also extends to the integration of AI into early warning and decision-making systems. 

"The concern is that too much is left to the decision of a machine.“This could lead to an unintentional escalation due to a misinterpretation of the data,” Mukhatzhanova said. 

Meaningful human control is needed over all technologies related to nuclear weapons systems.

Nuclear-weapon-free zones

Despite the crisis, Mukhatzhanova highlighted nuclear-weapon-free zones as "an example of truly positive progress."

“They demonstrate how states can come together and envision security without nuclear weapons and work towards achieving the total absence of nuclear weapons in their territories,” he said. The current areas encompass Latin America and the Caribbean, the South Pacific, Southeast Asia, Africa, and Central Asia.

In addition to regional zones, other mechanisms exist to prevent nuclear proliferation in specific territories. General Assembly the United Nations has recognized Mongolia as a nuclear-weapon-free stateIt is also debating the establishment of a nuclear-weapon-free zone in the Middle East. 

Reasons for hope

Mukhatzhanova also sees positive trends that offer opportunities to restore dialogue and reduce risks.

“We have faced situations of great threat and mistrust before, and humanity found a way out through confidence-building measures and arms control. With that experience, the international community is in a better position to work on rebuilding or creating a new architecture for arms control and disarmament,” he said.

Also, he highlighted that Young people are increasingly questioning nuclear orthodoxy. and the traditional role of nuclear weapons as guarantors of security. “That gives me hope,” Mukhatzhanova said.

Furthermore, there is a greater awareness of the humanitarian impact of nuclear weapons and a greater sense of responsibility among non-nuclear-weapon states.

“Even a limited use of nuclear weapons would affect countries far beyond the conflict zone (…) And that understanding can help move the issue forward,” he concluded.

*Researcher at UNIDIR's Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme, Chairperson of Japan for a World Without Nuclear Weapons, and Director of the International Organizations and Non-Proliferation Programme at the Vienna Centre for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation

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