Violence linked to organized crime, economic changes, restrictive migration policies, increased returns and deportations, and the growing impact of climate disasters are reshaping migration in Latin America and the Caribbean, according to a new report by the International Organization for Migration ( IOM ).
The study, titled Multi-Country Prospective Overview for Latin America and the Caribbean , analyzes how migration dynamics are evolving and identifies emerging trends that will influence population movements in the coming years.
“ It’s not about predicting the future, but about preparing for different possible scenarios ,” said Ana Durán Salvatierra, IOM Deputy Regional Director for Latin America and the Caribbean. “In a rapidly changing environment, anticipation is essential for effective migration governance. Migration will continue to evolve. The key question is whether we react too late or prepare in advance.”
More diverse and multidirectional movements
Migration in the region is becoming increasingly complex and dynamic. Movements no longer follow primarily traditional patterns, but are more diverse, multidirectional, and dynamic, with the emergence of new routes and increasing pressure on border areas and urban centers.
The analysis is based on foresight exercises conducted in seven countries in the region and examines emerging signals that could reshape migration between 2025 and 2028. These exercises identify common patterns that offer a clearer understanding of how mobility may evolve in different contexts.
The methodology combines data analysis, a review of global trends, and participatory workshops with experts and national stakeholders. Rather than predicting exact outcomes, it develops plausible scenarios and highlights the practical implications for planning, coordination, and resource allocation.
Key figures and trends
According to the report, approximately 78,7 million international migrants currently reside in the region. In 2024 alone, 14,5 million internal displacements were recorded , primarily due to natural disasters, while displacements linked to conflict and violence reached almost 1,5 million.
Intraregional migration remains a defining feature, including ongoing movements from Venezuela, with around 6,9 million Venezuelans living in Latin America and the Caribbean, mainly in Colombia, Peru, Brazil, Chile and Ecuador.
These trends do not occur in isolation, but rather interact and reinforce each other, creating a more volatile and complex migratory environment in which multiple factors drive movements simultaneously.
Beyond identifying risks, the report aims to strengthen the capacity for anticipation. In a context marked by uncertainty, a forward-looking approach helps to overcome reactive responses and supports more effective preparedness.
IOM is increasingly integrating foresight into its planning, disaster risk reduction, and policy development efforts to support faster, more coordinated, and evidence-based responses. Through this regional analysis, IOM seeks to support governments and communities in making more informed decisions by incorporating anticipation into planning and preparedness.