The strengthening of El Niño could push at least 49 million additional people into hunger by the end of 2027, according to a new analysis by the World Food Programme ( WFP ), which warns of a significant deterioration in 45 countries already experiencing vulnerability.
The weather phenomenon is expected to peak between September and December 2026 , but its effects could extend well into 2027 due to its impact on agricultural cycles and future harvests. Droughts, floods, and extreme temperatures are already affecting some communities, while others may face even more adverse conditions during the upcoming planting and harvesting seasons.
From 225 to 274 million people
The WFP analysis focuses on 45 countries where El Niño could significantly alter rainfall, temperatures, and the frequency of droughts and floods. Overall, the number of people facing acute food insecurity could rise from approximately 225 million to 274 million , an increase of roughly 22%.
The WFP recalls that the 2015-2016 El Niño event affected the food security of between 60 and 100 million people, demonstrating the magnitude that the phenomenon can reach when it coincides with contexts of poverty, conflict or economic fragility.
Central America could register the largest proportional increase
Latin America and the Caribbean are among the regions at greatest risk. More than 16 million people could see their food security deteriorate, and Central America would register the largest proportional increase among all the areas analyzed: 83,1%.
East and Southern Africa also face significant risks, particularly in countries where the upcoming rainy seasons are crucial for food production. More than 18 million people could experience a deterioration in their food security, representing a 26% increase.
Southern Africa is particularly vulnerable because many families rely on rain-fed subsistence farming. A dry or erratic season can rapidly reduce food production and household incomes.
In Asia and the Pacific, an estimated 8,2 million additional people could face acute food insecurity, while in West and Central Africa the figure would increase by about 12%, affecting almost six million more people.
Act before the emergency arrives
Given these forecasts, the UN agency is expanding preparedness and response measures in more than 50 countries.
Since May, these mechanisms have been activated in South Sudan, Chad, Mauritania, Uganda, Guatemala, and El Salvador, mobilizing more than $14 million to support half a million people. The measures include cash transfers, pre-arranged financing mechanisms, disaster insurance, and support to reduce risks before floods, droughts, or storms occur.
Experience from previous events shows that anticipation can also significantly reduce costs. According to the WFP, every dollar invested in anticipatory action programs can save between three and seven dollars in avoided losses and humanitarian response expenses.
Existing crises can multiply the impact
El Niño will not affect all countries in the same way. Some areas are already experiencing below-average rainfall, flooding, or unusually high temperatures, while others could experience the greatest impact during upcoming agricultural seasons.
Countries already facing poverty, conflict, economic instability, and repeated extreme weather events are likely to suffer the most severe consequences. There, a crop failure or a price surge can quickly push families barely able to meet their basic needs into critical levels of hunger.